Tobacco health warnings and the nocebo effect

I'm not saying that tobacco is good for you. In fact I think it is very bad for you, but not quite in the ways commonly advertised.

And that making it one hundred times more damaging than it could be, may not be a good idea.

Lung cancer incidence in industrialised countries is around 0.06% of the population, whether tobacco-enhanced or not (1).

The placebo effect in nowaday's pharmaceutical tests is around 25% (and rising, it seems)(2).

So one may argue that if the nocebo effect affects 25% of the smokers' population in a country where smokers are a quarter of the population, it will affect 1 in 16 people, or six and a quarter percent. That's over 100 times the 0.06% of current lung cancer deaths.

And the industrialised nations average of smokers is well above 25% anyway.

I'm not saying these are accurate figures, or careful calculations. As a ballpark figure, however rough, it should give an idea of the size of the playing field. After careful consideration, I believe it does.

I may also add that there is a 68.9% chance that it is just as accurate as in 82.3% of Serious Scientific Studies, the accuracy of the figures and exactness of calculation of which I have come progressively and inexorably to doubt. So I guess I'm in good company.

Anyway, let's say I'm only half right. Then, putting health warning on tobacco products, and especially reinforcing the nocebo effect with subtle undertaker sneakiness and (as has been suggested) colourful graphical scariness, is killing 50 times more people (or 5000% more), than tobacco may do on its own.

And that's allowing that tobacco was a deciding factor in 100% of the lung cancer deaths.

So I also guess that those responsible for the law requiring to write "SMOKING CAUSES CANCER" on tobacco health warnings are also responsible for increasing lung cancer deaths 5000%.

Not a bad accomplishment for the Power of Stupidity, however monumental that may be.

(1) http://www.kidon.com/smoke/percentages.htm

(2) http://www.wired.com/medtech/drugs/magazine/17-09/ff_placebo_effect

On top of that you could add:
- Why do people smoke?
- Cause it's addictive.
- Ok, but why do they start?
- Well, I guess a lot of them do because the warnings are so ludicrous that a fuck-you attitude becomes almost unavoidable...
-  Hmm...